Comments on: The Continued Slow Deflation of the Housing Bubble

By: Michael B Rubin/Beyond Paycheck to Paycheck

Michael B Rubin/Beyond Paycheck to Paycheck — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 18:15:47 +0000

Interesting take. While I’m with you on many of your points, IMO forecasting long-term economic trends such as these is no different than forecasting the weather. Afterwards, it’s really easy to explain what happened. Beforehand, really tough since there are innumerable variables.

One factor you didn’t discuss which may play a role with the elderly; they live for a very long time and don’t want/can’t move. Even if they are forced into assisted living, the home is often not sold as a protected asset/inheritance down the road. In a way, the demographic trend of increased seniors may actually tighten the supply – especially in areas where property taxes are lower (so the annual cash-flow required for a paid-off house is low.)

Personally, I think we’ll continue to see a regression to the mean. Of course, different markets will not fit the pattern.

By: Liz

Liz — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 20:08:27 +0000

Master Po — the boomers haven’t retired yet! I do foresee a mess with Social Security if that isn’t addressed, and soon. I’m not that close to retirement yet, and still have 3 kids to put through college. But my mother and MIL are both still around, and we’re seeing firsthand that we have GOT to plan for retirement. Fortunately, both have sold their SF homes — we’ll have to worry about ours later, plus ours is a kid-friendly house in a kid-friendly town. So that will help, plus it’s “average,” not huge, not small. Kathy Lane’s book “Die$mart” is helping us with retirement planning, including mistakes to make, how to manage and protect assets if I/we become incapacitated (you need more than a will) and the need to look into long-term care, among all kinds of other valuable nuggets. Estate planning is NOT just for the wealthy — this book has shown us clearly that it’s a must for everyone, young and old, rich and poor, and average.

By: MasterPo

MasterPo — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 08:20:44 +0000

You know TML, for at least 30 years of my life I’ve heard how the retiring boomers are going to change the whole dynamic of our economy, if not destory it!

Hasn’t happened yet.
Oops…forgot to say great post! Looking forward to your next one.

By: MasterPo

MasterPo — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 02:51:05 +0000

You know TML, for at least 30 years of my life I’ve heard how the retiring boomers are going to change the whole dynamic of our economy, if not destory it!

Hasn’t happened yet.

By: Kacie

Kacie — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 20:44:05 +0000

Interesting. It makes quite a bit of sense to me.

I live in Pittsburgh which has more older folks than younger. Housing prices never got out of hand here.

I can see how as boomers continue to age and move to warmer locations, nursing homes, heaven, that more houses will be available.

That’s good news for me, since I’m a renter and would like to buy within the next few years.