A number of US companies benefit from low dollar as well.

One thing I am wondering about though. With all the money being printed inflation seems almost like a no-brainer. But the money supply isn’t a sufficient requirement for inflation. There is also velocity of money which is still very low. There is a huge unemployment, the rate of job losses may have slowed down, but a lot of people are still unemployed. Wages aren’t likely to go up any time soon. There are still coming losses in commercial real estate, residential loans coming for rate reset and losses in credit card businesses. Then there is de-leveraging of both companies and households. People aren’t rushing to spend now so there isn’t such a push to raise prices. These are all deflationary factors.

Sure, the price of oil is up, but it could be mostly optimism and expectations not real supply demand. The long term treasury rates are down, but as with oil this could largely be newly awakened appetite for risk – how much time all the investors would want to keep money at under 3% for 10 years. There was a bubble in treasuries due to panic, now panic is over and investors are leaving treasuries. How long this will last – nobody knows.

So for the moment, I am trying to hedge my bets. I wouldn’t expect high inflation this year though. Or next year for that matter. In 2-5 years? Maybe.