Comments on: How to Probe for Signs of a Market Bottom

By: TMN

TMN — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 03:05:09 +0000

sure p/e is unstable right now, but even using pre-crash numbers it’s still overvalued. take it down somewhere between 15 to 30 percent to account for a slower economy once we start to climb back from the bottom and it’s obvious we’re nowhere near the bottom. my money is on breaking 5000 before the year is out.

By: Brad

Brad — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 23:12:42 +0000

Not sure how I feel about corporate buybacks and insiders as an optimal indicator of a bottom. My biggest problem is that boards and officers have a tendency to be overly optimistic about their own companies. Which is a likely cause for them taking on ridiculous amounts of debt and risk. I suspect it will be a corroborative trend, but I would need some other indicators before I got too excited.

On the flip side, I think your reasons for disregarding several of the other indicators are very wise. It’s very difficult to make historical comparisons on a once in a lifetime event.

By: MasterPo

MasterPo — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 02:51:00 +0000

I’m thinking this is turn around is more like a dead-cat bounce.

The initial shock of the Obama spending plans has worn off for now. But most of the plans don’t actually kick in until 2010 and later so don’t pop the bubbly too soon.

Washington is already ramping up the PR machine for stimulus II this year.

Like a kid with daddy’s credit card…