Comments on: How Long Can Our Bear Market Last? http://toughmoneylove.com/2009/01/08/how-long-can-our-bear-market-last/ The Hard Truth about Money and Personal Finance Fri, 24 Feb 2012 15:57:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Curt http://toughmoneylove.com/2009/01/08/how-long-can-our-bear-market-last/comment-page-1/#comment-2063 Curt Fri, 09 Jan 2009 16:05:09 +0000 http://toughmoneylove.com/?p=1062#comment-2063 Excellent article. I think you're right, we are in for a long recession, perhaps 20 years and if the dollar collapses along the way - it will take out our legs and take America off the map. Excellent article. I think you’re right, we are in for a long recession, perhaps 20 years and if the dollar collapses along the way – it will take out our legs and take America off the map.

]]> By: TStrump http://toughmoneylove.com/2009/01/08/how-long-can-our-bear-market-last/comment-page-1/#comment-2060 TStrump Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:45:36 +0000 http://toughmoneylove.com/?p=1062#comment-2060 I'm reading a book called 'The Next Great Bubble Boom' by Harry S. Dent, Jr. It has some interesting predictions (largely based on demographics). In the book, he predicts that the markets will pick up by late 2009/early 2010, peak by mid-to late- 2010 and then crash sometime between 2010 and 2013; after that, we will face a 12-yr bear market. Very compelling reading. I’m reading a book called ‘The Next Great Bubble Boom’ by Harry S. Dent, Jr.
It has some interesting predictions (largely based on demographics).
In the book, he predicts that the markets will pick up by late 2009/early 2010, peak by mid-to late- 2010 and then crash sometime between 2010 and 2013; after that, we will face a 12-yr bear market.
Very compelling reading.

]]> By: vilkri http://toughmoneylove.com/2009/01/08/how-long-can-our-bear-market-last/comment-page-1/#comment-2044 vilkri Thu, 08 Jan 2009 16:44:48 +0000 http://toughmoneylove.com/?p=1062#comment-2044 There are major systematic differences between Japan and the US. For one, Japan is run by bureaucrats and not politicians. This makes public processes a lot slower. (Not that politicians have such a great track record, but at least you can get rid of them.) Japan is also much more an old-boys' network than the US is. And lastly, the US is known for taking the bull by its horns. While the attitude of "shooting first and asking questions later" is hardly ever a good thing, I think this hands-on attitude has helped America in the way it does business. Japan is not at all like that. Don't forget how quickly and easily the US resolved the S&L crisis which was similar to the real estate bubble in the 1980's in Japan. The Japanese have not recovered yet while we are already facing the next crisis after another tremendous boom. One more point about a possible correlation between a bear market, savings rate and demographics. The US has an advantage here, too. It is a country of immigrants. (The US has done a great job ignoring its indigenous people. So, let's keep doing it.) As long as there is a good flow of immigrants the demographics will be much more advantageous to the US. Immigrants tend to be young and hard-working no matter whether they are legal or illegal. Very few of the immigrants to the US come her to abuse the system as they do in Europe, for example, where there is a much deeper social security net. Bottom line: My vote goes to the US, if there is any country out there that can get organized well enough to get out of this mess. There are major systematic differences between Japan and the US. For one, Japan is run by bureaucrats and not politicians. This makes public processes a lot slower. (Not that politicians have such a great track record, but at least you can get rid of them.) Japan is also much more an old-boys’ network than the US is. And lastly, the US is known for taking the bull by its horns. While the attitude of “shooting first and asking questions later” is hardly ever a good thing, I think this hands-on attitude has helped America in the way it does business. Japan is not at all like that. Don’t forget how quickly and easily the US resolved the S&L crisis which was similar to the real estate bubble in the 1980′s in Japan. The Japanese have not recovered yet while we are already facing the next crisis after another tremendous boom.

One more point about a possible correlation between a bear market, savings rate and demographics. The US has an advantage here, too. It is a country of immigrants. (The US has done a great job ignoring its indigenous people. So, let’s keep doing it.) As long as there is a good flow of immigrants the demographics will be much more advantageous to the US. Immigrants tend to be young and hard-working no matter whether they are legal or illegal. Very few of the immigrants to the US come her to abuse the system as they do in Europe, for example, where there is a much deeper social security net.

Bottom line: My vote goes to the US, if there is any country out there that can get organized well enough to get out of this mess.

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